That’s a heck of a dramatic subject line, “Life Altering Technology”, but it’s something I feel people should be informed. I’d love feedback on this piece so if you’ve already heard of this technology please let me know. Would also love to hear any thoughts you may have….
Let me preface the conversation by stating that this isn’t the typical technological advancement discussion where it goes something like “in 10 years all vehicles will be self-driving” or “Colony on Mars in the year 2050” or “flying taxis and hyperloops by 2040”. This advancement is here already, it’s free, and it’s 100% available for public use. I expect if you haven’t heard about this you will in the next 6 months anyway – probably sooner.
The new tech is named Chat GPT, was developed by a company called OpenAI , and is absolutely crazy. Basically, it’s an online artificial intelligence and language dialogue. Let me give you a quick taste of what it can do using a task I gave Chat GPT this weekend…
Step 1: I sit down and have zero idea how this works but let me just take a random stab at giving this system a task related to my job
Me: “Write me a financial market piece about the interest rate environment, unemployment, and the US stock market”
Chat GPT: “The interest rate environment in the United States has been a topic of much discussion in recent years. The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, sets the benchmark interest rate, known as the federal funds rate, which serves as a basis for all other borrowing costs in the economy.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, the Fed lowered interest rates to near zero in an effort to stimulate economic growth. This policy, known as "quantitative easing," was intended to encourage borrowing and investing by making it cheaper to do so. However, as the economy improved and unemployment fell, the Fed began to gradually raise interest rates in an effort to normalize monetary policy.
The current interest rate environment can have a significant impact on the stock market, as it can affect the cost of borrowing for companies and consumers, as well as the return on investment for savings and other financial instruments. In general, low interest rates tend to be supportive of stock prices, as they can make it cheaper for companies to finance operations and expansion, and they can also make stocks more attractive compared to other income-generating investments.
On the other hand, higher interest rates can have a negative impact on stock prices, as they can increase the cost of borrowing for companies and make stocks less attractive compared to other income-generating investments.
The unemployment rate is another key factor that can influence the stock market. A low unemployment rate is generally seen as a sign of a strong economy, as it indicates that there are plenty of job opportunities and that consumers have disposable income to spend. This can be positive for stock prices, as companies may see increased demand for their products and services.
On the other hand, a high unemployment rate can be negative for stock prices, as it can indicate a weaker economy and less demand for goods and services.
Overall, the interest rate environment and unemployment rate are just two of many factors that can influence the stock market. Other factors include economic growth, inflation, and global events, to name a few. It is important to consider a wide range of factors when making investment decisions and to consult with a financial professional for personalized advice.”
Summary: It performed this task in about 2-3 seconds and I altered the above task 0% to clean up grammar, spelling, word usage, etc. Tell me that couldn’t pass for a human’s work.
Step 2: I actually thought the above was pretty solid work so I decided to see if it could add a little flair to its writing style to sound more human. Give me something that maybe could pass for my work, something that could actually attempt to do this very part of my job that I’m doing right now….
Me: ”Using humor, write about current events in US stock market.”
Chat GPT: “It's been a wild ride on Wall Street lately, folks! It seems like every day there's a new headline or tweet sending the stock market into a frenzy
First, it was the Redditors and their love of GameStop causing a major upset in the market. They proved that even the little guy can shake things up with a coordinated effort and some clever meme-making.
Then, we had the "meme stocks" party, with shares of companies like AMC Entertainment and BlackBerry skyrocketing for no apparent reason other than internet hype.
But let's not forget about the elephant in the room: the ongoing trade war with China and the looming threat of inflation. Will the Fed raise interest rates to combat inflation? Or will they keep them low to support economic growth? No one knows for sure, but one thing is for certain: the stock market is sure to continue its wild ride in the coming months.
So, if you're feeling anxious about your investments, just remember: it's not a stock market, it's a rollercoaster! Hang on tight and try to enjoy the ride.
Summary: Well it certainly added the missing flair and also took about 2 seconds. I disagree wholeheartedly with its tone and analogy but was stunned. I realize I could have asked it sooo much more. I’m guessing it could write the above in poem format, Shakespearean style, or even King James. I could have said in 500 words or less or using 4 paragraphs. I don’t know the limits at this point but my mind is fully blown with the big picture
Step 3: I’m getting a small sense for how this alters my personal life or any person’s job it is to create content but the parent comes out in me. My 12-year-old daughter walks by and I say “hey do you have any writing assignments you’re currently working on in school such as writing an essay or story?” She says, “ Yea, my teacher just gave us an assignment last week to write an essay on the importance of organization in our lives”. I begin typing as she goes on for a few more seconds….
Me: “For a middle school student write an essay about the importance of organization.”
Chat GPT: Being organized is an important skill that can help you in many areas of your life. It can help you be more productive, reduce stress, and make things easier for you.
In school, being organized is especially important. When you have a lot of assignments and projects to keep track of, it can be easy to get overwhelmed and fall behind. But with good organization, you can stay on top of your workload and make sure you're prepared for everything you need to do.
One way to be organized in school is to use a planner or calendar. This can help you keep track of due dates and make sure you don't forget any important tasks. It's also a good idea to set aside a specific place for your school materials, such as a desk or a backpack, so you know where everything is when you need it.
Another way to stay organized is to break big tasks into smaller, more manageable chunks. This can make them feel less daunting and help you feel more in control. For example, instead of trying to write a whole essay at once, you could break it down into steps such as brainstorming, outlining, and writing the first draft.
Being organized can also help you be more efficient. When you have a clear plan for what you need to do, you can focus on the task at hand instead of wasting time trying to figure out what to do next. This can help you get more done in less time and feel more accomplished.
Overall, organization is a valuable skill that can benefit you in many areas of your life. It can help you be more productive, reduce stress, and feel more in control. So if you're not already an organized person, it's worth taking some time to develop this important skill.
Summary: Before she’s even done explaining the assignment, I show her this work and ask what kind of grade she thinks it would receive. She reads it quickly and says for sure an “A”. I’m floored at the ability to alter its output based on the words “For a Middle School Student”. Writing take-home essays is now extinct. Go ahead and see for yourself, give it a task to write a summary of the Great Gatsby or any other typical student-read book. Good luck Teachers.
Here is roughly where my thoughts lie if you care to know….
- This system cannot be undone, putting this in a box where access is restricted or limitations are set, would be like trying to do the same thing with “The Internet”. For one, it’s not Freedom and for two my opinion is that it would be absolutely impossible.
- With that said, it hits me on all sorts of moral and ethical sides. If my daughter was to use that organization essay above verbatim what does that say? If she doesn’t but most of her school operates this way then what does that mean?
- It makes me think of a question I’ve discussed before. If there was a pill readily available right now that increases IQ by 100 points would you take it? From my viewpoint, there are problems with either the “yes” or the “no” answer
- Right now, is the least intelligent this system will ever be. This system is creative. Ask it to write a story or a screenplay to see for yourself
- What an amazing advancement and what a time to be alive. This absolutely effects the economy and is another example of human ingenuity. I think it was easiest to think that the “hands-on work” were the first type of jobs to have to battle AI/robotics such as manufacturing, burger flipping at McDonalds, etc. It can be surprising to realize that it’s also the jobs that are intensely dependent on the human mind and ability to write
- If technology is free then we are the product
- If you think this is limited to only written language then you haven’t heard of other mind-blowing AI tech where text can now be converted to speech and be placed over a real person’s face. It absolutely looks like they are the ones saying the words.
I have so much more I could say but I suspect I’ll say more in future pieces.
Regarding the market, It’s been a good start to 2023 after a fairly poor finish to 2022. The nonsense that exists on the day-to-day new cycle is astounding. Last week the market went down one day because the manufacturing report came in better than expected. Apparently too much being produced was read as a bad thing for the economy because it supposedly meant the Federal Reserve would likely continue its plan with interest rate hikes to cool the economy down. This type of thinking is absolute nonsense and should have no place in a real investor’s mind.
By the way, the next day market goes up because the labor market read like it was softening a touch and companies began to openly plan for layoffs. The market is stuck in some sort of short-term thinking where “good news is bad news and bad news is good news”. My advice is don’t pay attention to this. I follow the Federal Reserve more than any other advisor I know and feel confident investing like that is letting the tail wag the dog so to speak. Good companies, like the ones we choose to invest, typically find a way.
Until next time,
Brock
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